Thank you to my Philadelphia Fed colleague, Ivy Washington, for that welcome and introduction. I must also acknowledge the efforts of one of my other colleagues from across the street, 罗宾·迈尔斯, 感谢你组织了这个项目.
And I also wish to recognize Senior Vice President and Lending Officer Bill Spaniel, 谁将主持今天上午节目的讨论部分.
现在 certainly, I can stand up here and speak, but that would only make this a one-way discussion. 我想听听你们的问题, 参与对你重要的事情, 并确保我们充分利用这段时间. So, allow me to briefly give you my economic outlook and a brief overview of current banking conditions in the Third Federal Reserve District as our launching off point for this discussion.
但在我们做任何事情之前, 我必须先把第一件事解决掉, and that is the usual Federal Reserve disclaimer: The views I express this morning are my own and do 不 necessarily reflect those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System.
So, I will begin with the following: I remain rooted in my opinion that we are at the point where holding the policy rate steady is the prudent position to take. I arrived at this decision after carefully reviewing both the hard data and what I’ve been hearing directly from contacts throughout the Third District.
进一步, economic and financial conditions are continuing to evolve as I have been expecting, 不过我一直在密切关注最新的数据. There has 不 been the abrupt shift in data that would lead me to change my current position.
9月份的现有数据大多强于我的预期. The latest on retail sales confirms that households retained spending power and did 不 seem shy to use it over the summer. 有弹性的消费者不是问题. 的确，也许a的关键原则 软着陆 is that households get to adjust their plan for when and how it best serves them — as opposed to the kind of drastic, 不可避免的调整, 说, 突然失去工作.
说实话，消费者支出的势头有点令人头疼. 业内人士认为，中国消费者更加谨慎，对价格更加敏感. 主要调查还显示，自夏季以来，消费者信心稳步下降. 但 there could have been some specific factors at play over the summer that we have yet to fully parse out, 或者我们正处在一个转折点上, 或者，家庭的基本面甚至更为强劲.
请允许我在此停下来说明三件事. 首先，我们不会容忍价格再次加速上涨. 第二个, while I stand ready to revise my views and act accordingly if I see signs of reinflation, 我也不会对数据中正常的逐月变化反应过度.
和第三, 我们必须继续依赖数据, and that includes making sure we separate that which could just be noise from that which could be an actual signal. 但要做到这种区别，而且是确定的, 我们必须这样做——我们需要几个月的数据来平均.
And this also includes data from the impacts of lingering uncertainties to which we must remain attuned. 长时间的罢工, 重新开始支付学生贷款, 国际事件都有各自的威尼斯人网址效应. 但在一段时间内，我们不一定知道它们的程度. 我们需要看一下数据.
威尼斯人网址机制不能操之过急. We raised the policy rate by more than 5 percentage points in the span of a little more than a year. 在这么短的时间内发生了这么大的变化. We know that the full impacts of those increases may 不 yet be fully absorbed across the economy. 我们也几乎以同样的速度扭转了我们的资产负债表. 我们很快就把自己置于限制性的领域.
但 the speed with which we worked then is also part of my argument for holding steady now. 我说过, 政策利率是限制性的, and holding them steady now will keep us in restrictive territory and steadily pressing down on inflation. 这是一个什么都不做的时候 is 做一些事情，事实上，我认为这等于做了很多事情.
第一个, 通胀方面:整体个人消费支出通胀仍高于目标水平, 按年计算，这几乎是去年的一半. 8月份的月度读数是自2020年以来最小的环比增幅. 我看到的数据, 以及我所听到的一切, 指出稳定的通货紧缩已经开始并持续下去, 如果慢. My projections have inflation dropping below 3 percent in 2024 and leveling out at our 2 percent target thereafter.
我期望GDP增长, 哪家公司的表现超过了今年早些时候的预期, 将持续到2023年底, 在2024年略微撤回之前. 但 while I anticipate the rate of GDP growth to moderate, 我没有 anticipate a contraction. 我不认为会出现衰退.
看看工作, I anticipate unemployment to end the year at about 4 percent — just slightly above what the unemployment rate is now — and to increase slowly over the next year to peak at around 4.5%，然后在2025年回到4%. 这条道路将使失业数字与失业率保持一致 自然失业率, or that theoretical level where labor market conditions support stable 2 percent inflation.
现在，这个确实 不 意味着我预计会有大规模裁员. 我没有. 影响失业率的因素有很多, 包括工作场所的技术变革, 更多的工人重新进入威尼斯人网址市场, or other public policy choices that may impact workers’ decisions regarding their own jobs. 有时这些力同时施加推和拉.
So, 当我们看到这些的时候, 我的观点是，我们需要呼气, 让我们已经采取的政策行动继续发挥作用, 在做出任何调整政策利率的决定之前，密切关注数据 要么 方向. 一个坚定的, 但病人, stance on monetary policy will allow us to achieve the 软着陆 that we all wish for our economy.
至于我预期利率何时回落? 这个问题我还没有答案. 我的预测是基于我目前所知道的. 随着时间的流逝, 调整完成后, 随着新数据的出现, 随着我们对潜在趋势的进一步了解, 我可能需要调整我的预测, 和他们一起, 我的时间框架. 可以这么说，利率需要在一段时间内保持在高位.
现在, let me briefly turn our attention to banking and financial conditions as we currently see them in the Third District. Bill and I will be able to dive more deeply into this area with you during our discussion. 但这里有一个大致的概念.
我首先要认识到这一点, 整体, current capital levels remain adequate as institutions across the District continue to have sufficient liquidity. 值得庆幸的是, 整个特区的银行存款并没有出现大范围的下降, 存款水平也在向历史水平回升. 盈利依然强劲，但利息支出的增加仍令人担忧.
企业贷款继续, though it was reported to me by contacts that many borrowers have been turning their focus to their “must haves,而不是他们的“喜欢拥有”.“抵押贷款活动的减少是显而易见的, as has been widely reported — and certainly this is true both here in our region and nationwide. 整个贷款组合的资产质量仍然良好.
所有有效贷款的30天拖欠率, 虽然趋势越来越高, 仍低于历史水平和大流行前水平.
然而, with all of this comes both interest rate and liquidity risks as deposits return to their prepandemic levels, 它造成的资金缺口, 以及政策利率上升对资产负债表的影响.
这是我最担心的问题之一, 至少在费城附近, 仍然是商业房地产(CRE)行业. 办公室空置率仍高于大流行前的水平, 而写字楼的净吸收率仍然顽固地为负. 沃纳梅克大厦的位置, 可以说是这座城市最重要的演讲之一, 破产接管迫在眉睫.
然而, 针对, it has been reported through contacts that CRE portfolios aren’t necessarily facing the same risks as here in Philadelphia. 据一位联络人透露，当地的牙医诊所不打算远程工作. 因此，总体而言，CRE贷款和贷款表现仍然良好.
在操作方面, we have continued to urge our contacts to remain vigilant to cyberattacks and to carefully monitor any novel tech-driven activities with which they may become engaged, including in crypto and partnerships with nonbanks to deliver financial services to customers.
但, 再一次。, 全区, the banking sector remains strong and 不 broadly impacted by the spring’s banking turmoil. 客户可以对他们的存款和金融机构有信心.
总的来说，我们仍然处于国家的一个健康地区. Earlier this week, at a prior event, I was asked about our region’s economic health. My response was the following: Philadelphia doesn’t seem to ride the highs or lows that other regional economies do; we seem to always just keep going.
这就是我现在想说的. 我们的地区继续向前发展. 我们看到了我们的威尼斯人网址和我们共同的未来的积极迹象.